Iranian Population Studies

Iranian Population Studies

Estimation of the Level, Trend and Age-Sex Patterns of Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Iran

Authors
Mohammad Sasanipour 1
Mahyar Mohebi-Meymandi 2
1 Assistant Professor in Demography, Department of Population and Health, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph D. Candidate in Demography, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/jips.2022.321767.1145
Abstract
In order to be aware of the Covid-19 effect on mortality pattern in Iran, in this study, based on the published mortality data of the National Organization for Civil Registration, has been tried to estimate the level and pattern of age and sex of excess mortalityin Iran . Data onweekly mortality by age and sex from 2015 to 2021 from the National Organization for Civil Registration and data on weekly mortality due to Covid-19 from the weekly reports of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education were obtained and the excess mortality was estimated using the exponential smoothing regression prediction function. Results showed that the official statistics of deaths reported in the country do not include all deaths caused by Covid-19; this disease has also caused an increase of about 30 % in deaths since its outbreak The sex ratio of Covid-19 deaths in Iran is estimated at 1.1 and more than 80% of Covid-19 deaths have occured in the age group of 55 years and older. Like some developing countries in Iran, deaths due to Covid-19 are significantly reported less .The results of this study demonstrate the importance of rapid reporting all-cause mortality for epidemic monitoring.
Keywords
Covid-19
Mortality
Infectious Diseases
age
Iran

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 27 December 2021
  • Revise Date 14 June 2023
  • Accept Date 23 January 2022
  • Publish Date 20 February 2024