Iranian Population Studies

Iranian Population Studies

Estimation of the Effects of Various Migration Projection Scenarios on the Age Structure in Iran Until 2041

Authors
Mahmoud Moshfegh 1
Javad Shojaei 2
1 Associate Professor of Demography, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding author).
2 Assistant Professor in Sociology, Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/jips.2025.498109.1252
Abstract
This article examines the effect of net migration on Iran's population's age distribution until 2041 in. Using demographic models and methods along with data from recent census decades, the changes in demographic indicators under various migration scenarios are analyzed. The findings indicates that Iran's net migration rate in the period from 2011 to 2016 was around -1.9 per 1,000 annually. Based on the migration scenarios of this study, Iran’s net migration rate may fluctuate between 0 and -4 per 1,000. If the negative net migration balance increases and reaches -4 per 1,000 by 2041, the median age of the population will rise from 40 to 46 years, and the aging index will increase from 35 to 138 elderly individuals per 100 young people. Conversely, in the scenario of a reduction in the negative net migration and balance to zero by 2041, the median age will remain approximately 40 years, while the aging index will increase to 75 elderly individuals per 100 young people. The findings reveal that the pattern of changes in the Iran's net migration can significantly influence the dynamics of population rejuvenation, aging trends, and the pattern of shifts in the age structure pyramid. Rational and scientific policies to mitigate the negative net migration balance could help preserve human capital, enhance fertility rates, and slow the pace of population aging. Developing rational and evidence-based policies to reduce Iran’s emigration not only ensures the retention of the nation’s human capitals but also facilitates the restoration of the population’s age structure, the improvement of fertility levels, and efforts to counteract population aging.
Keywords
Net (Balanced) Migration
Castro Model
Migration Projection
Net Migration Estimation Using Main Components Method
Age Structure

Subjects

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Iranian Population Studies
Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 16
December 2022
Pages 151-184

  • Receive Date 06 December 2024
  • Revise Date 19 December 2024
  • Accept Date 29 December 2024
  • Publish Date 30 December 2024