Iranian Population Studies

Iranian Population Studies

Demographic Analysis of Age-Time Variation in Human Capital Investment in Post-Revolutionary Iran (1986-2018)

Authors
Mehdi Khalili 1
Majid Koosheshi 2
1 Ph. D Candidate in Demography, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Demography, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author).
10.22034/jips.2025.501097.1257
Abstract
A crucial aspect of economic growth intricately linked to demographic changes, particularly age structure, is labor productivity which in turn, is directly influenced by the level of investment in education and health. This article investigates the level and trends of human capital investment in urban Iran and its association with demographic shifts. The National Transfer Accounts methodology was employed to construct private and public education and health consumption age profiles. The Lee-Carter method was then applied to model these per capita rates over time. Our findings reveal that government expenditure on education increased in the early 2010s. However, university expenses primarily remain the responsibility of households. Comparing government and household investments in health and education, we observed that while the government has predominantly focused on education expenses, particularly in recent years, the majority of children's health expenses are borne by households. An inter-cohort comparison further demonstrates that, unlike older cohorts where education costs were primarily borne by households; newer cohorts experience a greater government contribution. Consequently, the findings from the cohort analysis largely corroborate those from the cross-sectional analysis.
Keywords
Fertility Decline
Age Transition
Productivity
Education
Health
Lee-Carter
National Transfer Accounts

Subjects

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Iranian Population Studies
Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 16
December 2022
Pages 37-72

  • Receive Date 21 January 2024
  • Revise Date 02 February 2024
  • Accept Date 12 February 2024
  • Publish Date 11 February 2025