نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Demographic transition theory, as one of the most fundamental theories in demography, describes and explains demographic changes. This article examines the evolution of the demographic transition theory and influential works and figures contributing to this evolution using the Referenced Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) method. The data were collected using scientometric methods from 3359 Web of Science citation database articles and analyzed using CRExplorer software. The findings showed that the most cited works from 1750 to 2000 were, respectively, An Essay on the Principle of Population by Malthus (1798), Population: The Problem of Growth by Notestein (1945), and Europe’s Second Demographic Transition by Van de Kaa (1987). The field of demographic transition theory experienced 14 historical leaps during different years, with peaks in 1986, 1987, and 2000. Thus, citation data provide insights into the historical context of science, and impact of prior research on subsequent studies.
کلیدواژهها English
Extendedabstract
Introduction
The task of demography is to describe and understand certain aspects of human society. Demography specifically focuses on the size, composition, and distribution of population, as well as how these characteristics change over time. Population theories have developed in response to demographic changes and have laid the foundation for further research. The demographic transition theory is a unique framework in population studies that helps explain demographic trends and processes across different societies.This theory has both a descriptive/historical aspect, which illustrates the stages of demographic transition, and an analytical aspect that aims to explain the decrease in mortality and fertility rates.
Progress in science relies on building upon previous knowledge, and understanding the historical context of scientific works can provide valuable insights into the evolution of theories. Therefore, this study aims to identify the most influential historical works in the field of demographic transition based on their publication dates, in order to gain a better understanding of the theory's development over time.
Data and Method
This study utilizes the RPYS scientometric method to trace the historical roots and influential works in the field of Demographic Transition (DT). Records were gathered by searching the Web of Science database for articles related to Demographic Transition. The RPYS method was then applied to analyze the references from 3,359 articles using CRExplorer software. The findings were presented across different time periods (1750-1900, 1901-1950, and 1951-2000). While RPYS studies typically focus on works from 1900 onwards, this study found significant references to pre-1900 works in the field of demographic transition, leading to an extension of the reference list timeframe to include works from 1750 onwards.
Findings
The study found that the most referenced works from 1750 to 2000 were Malthus's An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), Notestein's article Population (1945), and van de Kaa's article The Second Demographic Transition (1987). The field of demographic transition theory experienced 14 significant shifts over different years, with peaks in 1986, 1987, and 2000. A notable observation in the historical evolution of the theory is the dominance of books before the twentieth century, particularly in economics and population studies, such as the works of Malthus and Dumont. However, the trend shifted in the first half of the twentieth century towards articles, especially after the introduction of trend data analysis in European countries. The shifts in 1929 and 1945 marked the transition to article-centered publications, with key papers by Thompson, Notestein, and Davis shaping the theory. As research on the demographic transition theory continued and data collection expanded globally, other scholars contributed new perspectives, influenced by economic and social changes associated with modernity and modernization. In the latter half of the twentieth century, scholars like Becker, Hajnal, Coale, Caldwell, Lesthaeghe, and van de Kaa further developed the theory, with influential books by Becker and Coale complemented by significant articles in demographic literature. The theory's growth was driven by interdisciplinary collaboration, involving economists, demographers, sociologists, mathematicians, and statisticians, with demography serving as the central discipline.
Discussion and Conclusion
Recent research in Europe has revitalized the demographic transition theory, now referred to as the "Second Demographic Transition," in light of ongoing changes on the continent. The theory is anticipated to undergo modifications, adjustments, and extensions to account for the intricacies of demographic shifts in the modern globalized era. Given the growing importance of gathering, disseminating, and interpreting trend data in the twenty-first century, it is probable that additional facets and evolutions of the theory will come to light.
