نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
In contemporary societies, addressing the needs of the elderly in both economic and healthcare has become a core governmental responsibility. Financing these needs, which are escalating rapidly due to a growing elderly population, is fundamentally dependent on economic growth. However, while the increase in the size and growth rate of the elderly population is typically gradual and steady, sustained economic growth is rare. Consequently, the cycle of demographic changes does not align with the cycle of public resources available to meet these needs. As a result, public transfer systems are considered an unstable source for funding the economic requirements of the elderly, such as the "health consumption". The aim of this study is to examine the co-movement between macroeconomic cycles and the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of the elderly, which serves as an indicator of health status. The data consist of annual time series over three decades (1991-2019), capturing changes in key macroeconomic indicators and the DALY. The results indicate a positive relationship between the unemployment rate and the Gini coefficient with the DALY. Furthermore, employment in the industrial sector has a negative effect on the DALY attributable to all diseases among the elderly. Although the findings do not clearly demonstrate a cyclical relationship, they highlight several important issues. Specifically, unemployment and societal inequality are two critical determinants of elderly health, likely exhibiting lifecycle effects. Incorporating these factors into analyses of the macroeconomic lifecycle could enhance the power of explaining the DALY.
کلیدواژهها English
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Studies in various countries have shown that economic fluctuations affect the health of individuals in society. Since studies conducted on the contradictory relationship between macroeconomics & health have mainly focused on the working-age population (young & middle-aged) & neglected the elderly, this study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the health of the elderly in Iran. Considering that economic fluctuations do not immediately & short-term lead to death, but initially cause health disruptions in individuals, & individuals may remain in a state of illness & disability for years before eventually dying, therefore in this study, the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) index will be used instead of mortality & life expectancy indicators to examine the health status.
Method & Data
The research method in this study is quantitative & secondary analysis using data obtained from various sources. By utilizing national data, the trends over three decades (1991-2019) of changes in macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation, Gini coefficient, employment rate in the industrial sector, & health indicators related to the elderly, specifically, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) at the age of 60 are examined. In this study, data & information related to the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) from the Global Burden of Diseases & economic variable information from the Statistical Center of Iran have been obtained. In this research, the Hodrick-Prescott method has been used to extract cycles & fluctuations. In the analytical section, the impact of economic fluctuations on the well-being of the elderly is examined using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. In this research, the Granger causality test is used to assess the significance of the effect of economic fluctuations on the well-being of the elderly. Eviews 10 statistical software is used for estimating the regression model & related statistical tests.
Findings
Descriptive findings showed that the economic indicators of Iran during the studied period, from 1370 to 1398, experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in the two indicators of GDP growth rate (economic growth) & the Gini coefficient. On the other h& , the charts related to the Dalí indicators indicate that the long-term trend of these indicators was decreasing until 1391 but has increased in the 1390s. In the analytical section, the results indicated that in addition to its past, the Dali variable, the unemployment rate, & the Gini coefficient had a positive relationship with the dependent variable, which is the Dali resulting from all diseases.
Discussion & Conclusion
As the results showed, economic fluctuations have had a contradictory impact on the health index of the elderly, specifically years of life lost due to disability & incapacity. In other words, the negative or inverse relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations & elderly health, which was the main hypothesis of this study, is rejected. Therefore, this analysis that states the health status of the elderly improves during economic recessions & deteriorates during periods of prosperity does not apply to the elderly population in Iran. Although the findings were not consistent with cyclical relationships, they indicated a connection between some macroeconomic variables & the health of the elderly. Among these is the fact that unemployment & inequality within society have been significant determinants of the health of older adults. As we have witnessed the development of technology & the expansion of industry infrastructure in Iran in the last couple of decades, the results show that Iranian society still needs to exp& & develop industry & technology, especially in the field of medicine & health. Furthermore, the issues of unemployment & injustice, which actually represent poverty & the lack of facilities for the deprived & weak sectors, become the groundwork for increased illness & mortality among them. Therefore, it is suggested that policymakers pay special attention to these two issues (unemployment & injustice) in order to improve their health.
