Extended Abstract

Introduction

Iran has experienced major economic and social changes in recent decades. These changes have led to changes in the size, structure, and dynamics of Iran's population. Declining population growth, increasing urbanization, increasing youth population, declining fertility, changing patterns of internal and external migration, gradually increasing elderly population, decreasing marriage rates, and increasing female-headed households are some of the demographic challenges and issues that Iran is currently facing. The main goal of formulating population policies is to adapt population size, population growth, and its composition and distribution to economic realities, taking into account the needs and rights of the people. What is important is to analyze the dimensions and factors affecting macro-population policymaking and to try to design a comprehensive framework for population policymaking in Iran. In general, population policies should consider the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development alongside population growth and create a balance between them.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has experienced significant demographic changes in the last three decades, which have had a significant impact on the growth and composition of the population and will also have an impact on the future structure of the population. The sharp decline in fertility rates in Iranian society, especially in the last two or three decades, has had many demographic, social, and economic consequences, and this has forced government officials and policymakers to reconsider population policies and approve and implement programs to prevent the aging of the population in the coming years and encourage families to have more children. Given the pace of demographic changes in Iran, the Law on Supporting the Family and Youth of the Population was approved by the Islamic Consultative Assembly in the form of Article 85 of the Constitution and its experimental implementation for seven years. During this time, it is expected that by using the government's incentive and support policies, while preventing the declining trend of childbearing in the country, it will be possible to provide a basis for increasing the population and birth rate. Despite the government's incentive policies aimed at encouraging childbearing, concerns are felt about achieving the goals set in the Plan on Supporting the Family and Youth of the Population. Therefore, in this study, we are looking for the pathology of the policy-making and regulatory system in relation to the issue of population in the country.

In this study, while focusing on population policies and laws, an attempt has been made to examine the pathology of the policy-making and regulatory system in relation to the issue of population from the perspective of elites, population specialists and experts in the country. The questions we are looking for in this study are: From the perspective of population elites, are there gaps in the legislative system in the field of population in population policies in Iran? From the perspective of population elites and experts, what challenges and issues exist in the field of population policy in the country? From the perspective of elites and experts, what solutions and solutions are there for these challenges?

Method and Data

The study was conducted using a qualitative method and data were collected using in-depth and semi-in-depth interview techniques from 20 experts and specialists in this field, most of whom were professors of demography and sociology, one from the Ministry of Health and one from the Statistical Center of Iran. The purposive sampling method was considered with theoretical saturation. The criteria for selecting experts were their experience, expertise, and knowledge in the field of population studies. The interviewers were divided into two categories: academic elites and institutional experts. The data obtained from the conversations with the interviewees were on the most important components affecting childbearing behavior, the degree of success of the government in achieving population policy goals, challenges and problems in implementing population policies, solutions for implementing population policies, the attitude of the community towards population policies, and finally the strengths and weaknesses of the neglected parts of the law and the implementation of these policies.

Findings

The most important issues and gaps in population policymaking and the priority of strategies and solutions to overcome the challenges in population policymaking were identified in the form of the categories obtained, including 24 concepts and subcategories and 7 main statistical categories, which include: 1- Lack of correct and rational policymaking for all segments of society 2- Lack of attention to promising population indicators 3- Greater emphasis on direct policies than indirect policies 4- Attention to the realities of society through research 5- Emphasis on direct population policies and creating negative action in people 6- Attention to youth empowerment 7- Deficits in the implementation of population policies

Discussion and Conclusion

Although the population policies announced by the Supreme Leader are good and comprehensive policies that encompass all matters related to the population and family and a systemic thinking is seen in them, and according to the majority of experts present in this study, they are complete and comprehensive, but the laws and tools adopted by the parliament and other relevant institutions to implement these policies cannot achieve the set goals given the current conditions of the country. It can be said that there has been a rush in formulating laws related to population policies, which indicates insufficient use of the opinions of experts in the field of population and related fields such as sociologists and economists and other experts and sympathizers regarding this important matter. Any action taken to improve the living and cultural standards of the family is included in the population policies. Because childbearing occurs in the context of the family and every policy adopted by the government affects the family. In fact, the infrastructure should be such that families consciously conclude that the benefits of childbearing directly return to themselves and will be useful for society in the next stage. And that we should not have unreasonable expectations from population policies, because the experience of other countries has shown that if all capacities are used to increase fertility in the country, achieving fertility at replacement level or slightly above is a very excellent result, and we cannot expect to reach the fertility levels of a few decades ago.