نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Despite the importance of fertility intentions for forecasting future fertility, up-to-date evidence on fertility intentions in Iran remains limited. This study examines the levels and patterns of fertility intentions among 1,999 married women aged 15–44 in Tehran in 2025 and analyzes changes since 2012. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were used. Results showed that 66.8% of women under age 45 did not intend to have another child, 15.9% intended further childbearing, and 11.3% were uncertain. Among women younger than 36, uncertainty increased from 12.3% in 2012 to 17.0% in 2025. Fertility intentions were concentrated among childless women and those with one child, whereas most women with two children (83%) and three or more children (88%) intended to stop childbearing. The likelihood of either not intending additional childbearing or being uncertain was higher among younger women, women with fewer children, those who married later, and users of less effective contraceptive methods or non-users. Women living in higher-status residential areas were less likely to belong to these groups. The findings indicate persistent fertility limitation, rising fertility uncertainty, and the strengthening of one-child and two-child family norms in Tehran. Potential fertility increase remains concentrated among childless, one-child, and uncertain women.
کلیدواژهها English